| Month | UK spend £ | US spend $ | UK nCPA £ | US nCPA $ | New custs | Subscribers | New rev | Returning rev | Forecast total | Actual | Δ |
|---|
Mystery box availability by size, with weeks of cover from real sales, split by market.
SUB: PMFS), by size — the real pool you can ship, not the manual box-level guess.
Sold = the true units shipped per size over the trailing window (real Shopify orders) — that's the actual depletion rate, not a forecast. Demand/wk = that real rate, then scaled by the sales forecast across your cover window so a coming peak (World Cup, Nov/Dec) lifts it. Forecast cover = stock ÷ demand. Untick Forecast-led demand to see cover at today's actual sell-through (no forward scaling).
⚠ Seasonal size mix not in yet: the forward split uses the current season's sizes, so the Christmas shift toward kids isn't reflected — kids cover may read high for the Dec peak until the seasonal mix lands (next step).
Shared stock: a shirt can feed more than one box, so pools overlap — don't add box totals together as if they were separate stock.
Rolling weekly cash forecast — opening balance & payables live from Xero, receipts from the rolling forecast, supplier payments from stock cover. The third tool in the trifecta.
Shaded cells are editable — type any week to test a plan; closing balances recompute instantly. Edit a monthly assumption below to re-seed a whole row.
From the ap_due tab (Xero open bills). A = ad spend · B = stock · C = other (TCB, influencers, software, overheads). Pay A→B→C when cash is tight.
Detailed costs are now editable inside each line — click the ▸ on any cost row to expand it and change the cost of each item (apps, influencers, POs, etc.). The figures here cover only receipts, financing and VAT. Certainty: CERTAIN · LIKELY · GUESS.
The Rolling Forecast already drives these receipts live, in-memory — no copy/paste needed; edits on the Forecast tab move the closing balances here on the same tick. This box is only a manual override: paste a Copy forecast feed JSON to pin receipts to a specific scenario. Saved in this view until you change it.
The model. Each week: Closing = Opening + Cash in − Cash out, and next week opens where this week closed. 13 weeks from the Monday of the current week. Cash out is grouped into operating, inventory, people, finance and tax.
Categories follow your management P&L. The cost lines mirror the SIAB Performance Pack — Product (Stock), Fulfilment (split into outbound DPD/Royal Mail, inbound TCB freight, US ShipSmarter 3PL), Marketing (paid media + influencers), Brand, People, Overheads (incl. Software & apps), Interest. Payment-gateway (Transaction) fees are netted directly out of receipts via the net factor (~3.2% blended: US 3.6% Shopify-measured, UK/WW 2.6% est.), not shown as a separate cost line. These are the same figures Xero holds; the agency just rolls them into these groupings, so the cashflow speaks the same language.
Live data. Opening cash & creditors pull live from Xero via the button. Receipts seed from your recent revenue run-rate and are driven by the Rolling Forecast feed. Stock purchases seed at the Product COGS run-rate and switch to the real dated PO schedule (qty + deposit/balance) once the po_payments tab is populated from Stock Cover.
Run-rate vs Committed. The Cost basis switch toggles how cash-out is built. Run-rate (default) uses the pack category forecast. Committed swaps the bill-based categories (stock, shipping, software, overheads, brand, influencers) for the actual Xero bills on their real due dates from the ap_due tab, and adds invoiced receipts from ar_due — payroll, ad spend, Wayflyer and VAT stay on forecast. Committed is precise for the near weeks (where bills are already entered) and thins out further ahead until more bills land in Xero.
How it links to the trifecta — live, in-memory. The three tabs share data directly on the page. The Rolling Forecast publishes its combined monthly revenue (paced current month + driver months) in-memory → drives receipts here on every edit, no copy/paste. Stock Cover publishes its dated PO schedule → drives dated inventory payments. Xero supplies opening cash + payables (live in the authoring app; via the published feeds/*.json on this hosted site). If a source is missing it falls back to the actual sales run-rate, then the seeded run-rate. The manual paste box below remains only as an optional scenario override.
MVP note: weekly seeds are run-rate estimates, not committed cash dates. Tune the assumptions and weekly cells to match reality before relying on the runway figure.