| Month | UK spend £ | US spend $ | UK nCPA £ | US nCPA $ | New custs | Subscribers | New rev | Returning rev | Forecast total | Actual | Projected | Δ |
|---|
Mystery box availability by size, with weeks of cover from real sales, split by market.
SUB: PMFS), by size — the real pool you can ship, not the manual box-level guess.
Forecast = trailing 12-week sell-through of the actual boxes sold, averaged flat per week (no seasonality).
Weeks of cover = stock ÷ weekly sales.
Shared stock: a shirt can feed more than one box, so pools overlap — don't add box totals together as if they were separate stock.
📦 Payments below = all outstanding stock orders from your Stock Payments sheet (~£4.3m: Samsun, Hummel, Meyba Q1–Q4, Castore). € rows converted @0.865; £ rows as-is. Dates marked “est.” are placeholders — the sheet’s month-only/overdue dates need real ones. In the live build this reads straight from the Stock Payments sheet.
Rolling weekly cash forecast — opening balance & payables live from Xero, receipts from the rolling forecast, supplier payments from stock cover. The third tool in the trifecta.
Shaded cells are editable — type any week to test a plan; closing balances recompute instantly. Edit a monthly assumption below to re-seed a whole row.
From the ap_due tab (Xero open bills). A = ad spend · B = stock · C = other (TCB, influencers, software, overheads). Pay A→B→C when cash is tight.
Detailed costs are now editable inside each line — click the ▸ on any cost row to expand it and change the cost of each item (apps, influencers, POs, etc.). The figures here cover only receipts, financing and VAT. Certainty: CERTAIN · LIKELY · GUESS.
In the Rolling Forecast, click Copy forecast feed, then paste the JSON here to drive monthly receipts live. Saved in this view until you change it.
The model. Each week: Closing = Opening + Cash in − Cash out, and next week opens where this week closed. 13 weeks from the Monday of the current week. Cash out is grouped into operating, inventory, people, finance and tax.
Categories follow your management P&L. The cost lines mirror the SIAB Performance Pack — Product (Stock), Fulfilment (split into outbound DPD/Royal Mail, inbound TCB freight, US ShipSmarter 3PL), Transaction fees, Marketing (paid media + influencers), Brand, People, Overheads (incl. Software & apps), Interest. These are the same figures Xero holds; the agency just rolls them into these groupings, so the cashflow speaks the same language.
Live data. Opening cash & creditors pull live from Xero via the button. Receipts seed from your recent revenue run-rate and are driven by the Rolling Forecast feed. Stock purchases seed at the Product COGS run-rate and switch to the real dated PO schedule (qty + deposit/balance) once the po_payments tab is populated from Stock Cover.
Run-rate vs Committed. The Cost basis switch toggles how cash-out is built. Run-rate (default) uses the pack category forecast. Committed swaps the bill-based categories (stock, shipping, transaction, software, overheads, brand, influencers) for the actual Xero bills on their real due dates from the ap_due tab, and adds invoiced receipts from ar_due — payroll, ad spend, loan and VAT stay on forecast. Committed is precise for the near weeks (where bills are already entered) and thins out further ahead until more bills land in Xero.
How it links to the trifecta — the Architecture sheet bus. All three tools share one Google Sheet (Architecture). The Rolling Forecast publishes monthly revenue to the forecast_feed tab → drives receipts here. Stock Cover publishes its PO schedule to the po_payments tab → drives dated inventory payments. Xero supplies opening cash + payables directly. This page reads the sheet live on open (and via the refresh button); if a tab is empty it falls back to the seeded run-rate. Note: writing to the sheet is currently manual (paste from each tool) until a Sheets-write connector is added.
MVP note: weekly seeds are run-rate estimates, not committed cash dates. Tune the assumptions and weekly cells to match reality before relying on the runway figure.